��are set to rise by almost half a degree Celsius per decade, a study has forecast, with extreme weather events — including droughts and torrential rain — becoming more common.

While half a degree might not sound like a major shift, given that temperatures in the region can fluctuate by 10°C to 15°C per day, an����with 1.1°C of warming, half the global population faces water insecurity for at least one month per year.

Researchers in the latest study said the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East have in recent decades warmed significantly faster than other inhabited regions.

They also highlighted how����in the region were “growing rapidly” and as a result were making a significant contribution to��.

However, scientists said if major action was taken globally to reduce carbon emissions and combat other contributors to climate change, the rate at which temperatures continued to increase could be slowed.

“People’s day-to-day life will be affected mostly by extreme heat and extreme rain. Both of them are expected to have an increased frequency and intensity,” said Dr Diana Francis of Khalifa University in Abu Dhabi, one of the authors of the study.

“It is time to act at all levels to mitigate and adapt to the changes happening to our climate and weather.”

Read the full article here:

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Khalifa University and the Environment Agency Abu Dhabi found that reduced human-caused air pollution during the Covid-19 lockdown was accompanied by increased surface-level winds, resulting in higher concentrations of dust and particulate matter.��

Research has shown that the global lockdowns seen during the start of the Covid-19 pandemic had a significant impact on the climate of several regions around the world by improving air quality. However, some regions actually saw increases in particulate matter in the atmosphere, as a result of a dustier than expected air.��

Dr. Diana Francis, Head of the Environmental and Geophysical Sciences Lab (ENGEOS), Dr. Ricardo Fonseca, Research Scientist, and Dr. Narendra Nelli, Postdoctoral Fellow, along with Oriol Teixido, Ruqaya Mohamed and Dr. Richard Perry from the Environment Agency Abu Dhabi, investigated the increased dust activity over the Arabian Peninsula in combination with an increase in wind speed during the Covid-19 lockdown period in 2020. They found that while anthropogenic emissions were reduced, particulate matter concentrations from natural sources increased. Their results were published in Aeolian Research.��

The main winds driving dust emissions over the Arabian Peninsula are known as Shamal winds. They result from an East-West pressure dipole with a low over the Indo-Pakistani subcontinent and a high over northern Africa. During the lockdown, emissions reduction over the Indian subcontinent resulted in a deeper low pressure, which caused an increase in Shamal winds over the Arabian Peninsula leading to more dust emissions and higher concentrations of particulate matter over the UAE and surrounding countries.

The policies aimed at restricting mobility and promoting social distancing in an attempt to control the spread of the virus also impacted atmospheric and oceanic conditions through changes in human-caused emissions of pollutants. The global Covid-19 lockdowns resulted in a reduction of transportation and�� closure of industrial facilities closures during a two month period, which resulted in�� a seven percent drop in global carbon dioxide emissions from human activity.��

At the lockdown peak in April 2020, regions responsible for around 90 percent of global CO2 emissions were under some level of confinement. The resultant drop in emissions led to a reduction of the mean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) of 0.5 degrees Celsius in most coastal areas, with the SSTs in the north Indian Ocean decreasing by about 5 percent. The cleaner air also led to lower night-time land surface and air temperatures, with urban areas experiencing a more pronounced reduction than rural ones. During the daytime, on the other hand, the surface and air above were warmer due to less scattering and absorption of the incoming UV radiation from the sun.��

In more polluted environments, like in the four major cities of India (Delhi, Kolkata, Mumbai and Chennai), the impact was even more dramatic with the monthly mean temperature dropping by up to 3 degrees Celsius.��

As temperatures varied, near-surface wind speeds were also affected, as winds are a response to local-scale pressure and temperature gradients.��

In the UAE, reduced emissions led to a 40 percent decrease in the concentration of pollutants such as nitrogen dioxide, sulfuric dioxide, and carbon monoxide, compared to pre-lockdown levels. However, the particulate matter concentrations increased by up to 45 percent.��

“This was unexpected,” Dr. Francis said. “Published works reported a general reduction in particulate matter during the lockdown period, owing to lower emissions and changes in precipitation. However, some cities in Europe and China saw an increase in particulate matter in the atmosphere due to long-range transport of dust. In fact, in Morocco, the decrease in local emissions was offset by long-range transported aerosols from non-local emissions. It is important to understand the impact of the large-scale circulation on dust activity over the Arabian Peninsula and its effects on air quality throughout the lockdown period given that the region is one of the largest sources of mineral dust on Earth with mineral dust potentially accounting for more than 40 percent of the particulate matter levels.”

The researchers found that while there was a reduction in anthropogenic, or human caused, emissions in the Arabian Peninsula during the lockdown period, the particulate matter concentrations actually increased due to higher dust loadings. This was due to the increased Shamal winds that caused more dust aerosols to be picked up from dust sources in the Arabian Peninsula and then transported across the region and beyond.��

Compared to the four years prior to 2020, the dust loading in 2020 was higher over the majority of the eastern Arabian Peninsula, with hotspots in Kuwait, Iraq, and neighboring Saudi Arabia.” Dr. Francis said.

Dust aerosols are the main contributor to particulate matter concentrations and long-range transport of aerosols can explain aerosol increases in regions further from loading areas. The peaks in dust loading go hand in hand with the peaks in particulate matter, according to the researchers, as the increased dust emission was driven by high near-surface winds in response to the change in temperature and pressure gradients.

“While the reduction in the concentration of pollutants, such as carbon monoxide, has been widely reported, in the vast majority of published studies the particulate matter in several regions around the world also decreased,” Dr. Francis said.��

“Over the eastern Arabian Peninsula, however, it actually increased due to more active wind flow. This ��ݮ��Ƶ the complex nature of dust emissions and its relationship to anthropogenic and natural effects. Having less man-made pollutants does not necessarily mean having a cleaner environment. It is essential that dust aerosols and their feedback on the regional climate should be considered when establishing national and regional strategies for anthropogenic emission reduction.”

Jade Sterling
Science Writer
26 April 2022

The post Why Reduced Emissions over the Arabian Peninsula Did Not Make the Air Any Cleaner during the Covid-19 Lockdown in 2020 appeared first on Khalifa University.

Researchers from KU’s ENGEOS Lab carried out the first fog microphysics measurements over the UAE, filling a gap in the existing studies of fog microphysics and contributing to region-specific prediction models that can help mitigate the impact that fog can have on society

Despite being a desert country, the UAE has all the necessary ingredients for fog, seeing up to 50 foggy nights per year. Dry desert conditions exist next to the warm seas of the Gulf, with moist air carried inland by the afternoon sea breeze cooled by the desert surface at night. This type of fog is known as radiation fog.

Fog can be considered a low-lying cloud; it’s a visible aerosol of miniscule water droplets hovering above the ground. This aerosol impacts visibility and can have a major impact on societal activities, particularly transportation, where low visibility can result in flight delays or create hazardous driving conditions.

Dr. Michael Weston, Dr. Diana Francis, Dr. Narendra Nelli, Dr. Ricardo Fonseca, Dr. Marouane Temimi and Dr. Yacine Addad published their results in the

“Fog microphysics characteristics play a key role in fog life cycle, radiation and visibility,” Dr. Francis said. “Measurements of fog microphysics are important to understand and improve existing model parameter schemes for more accurate fog forecasting. We carried out the first fog microphysics measurements over the UAE, where fog is a frequent occurrence in the winter months. The results from this study are the first of their kind in the region, and expected to advance our current knowledge on fog dynamics and characteristics.”

Once fog develops, it will persist for as long as moisture can continue to condense out of the air. When the condensation process is slowed by rising temperatures or other factors, the fog will begin to dissipate. Much of the fog seen in the UAE is radiation fog, but some develops via a different mechanism known as advection fog. This type of fog forms over the surrounding seas and moves over the UAE. Regardless of the type of fog, when the sun rises and warms the country in the morning, the fog dissipates.

“The stages of fog from onset, to maturation, and finally dissipation, are dependent on the complex interactions of droplet microphysics, aerosol chemistry, radiation, turbulence, and surface conditions,” Dr. Francis said. “For example, the number of fog droplets gives an indication of the number of activated cloud condensation nuclei, which is an important interaction in understanding fog onset and persistence.”

The research team collected the microphysical measurements of fog in the UAE from 28 January to 17 February 2021. These measurements are novel as they were collected at a site next to a warm water body and in an arid subtropical region. While fog microphysics have been reported for arid regions, they are normally associated with cold oceans located on the western coast of continents. The team’s results fill a gap in the existing studies of fog microphysics.

“Knowing the microphysical properties of fog helps in developing a more accurate forecast of the fog life cycle,” Dr. Francis said. “Previously, we were applying the generally known properties of fog because we didn’t have information on fog microphysics in the UAE available to us.”

To understand what’s happening during foggy periods, forecasters need to know the aerosol content and quantity in the atmosphere to determine the number of cloud droplets that will form around the aerosols.

The depth of the fog and the resulting reduction in visibility depends on the number of droplets that form, but research has shown that neither the number of fog droplets nor their shape remains constant during the different stages of the fog lifecycle.

For numerical prediction models to reflect these processes, the fundamental properties of the single droplets and aerosol particles must be considered.

The team’s results are useful for future work on fog harvesting as knowing the microphysical properties of fog droplets helps in the design of fog harvesting systems.�� The current observations are the first part of a long-term data set on fog microphysics for this region and future measurements are planned for the next winter season in the UAE.

Jade Sterling
Science Writer
22 March 2022

The post KU Researchers Making Fog Forecasting Models More Precise in the UAE appeared first on Khalifa University.

Scientists say appearance of dramatic red or orange snow is likely to become more frequent due to climate change

UAE researchers have revealed new details about how dust is travelling from the Sahara to the Alps to cause snowy pistes and glaciers to turn a dramatic red, pink or��.

The striking colouration, which happens when the dust causes the growth of microalgae, makes the snow melt more easily and is likely to become more frequent because of climate change.

��in Abu Dhabi reported that flows of air called atmospheric rivers are closely linked to the transport of dust from the Sahara to as far as northern Europe.

“In our study, we found an increasing trend in atmospheric rivers and associated severe dust transport episodes towards Europe,” said an author of the study, Dr Diana Francis, head of Khalifa University’s Environmental and Geophysical Sciences (ENGEOS) Laboratory.

Read the rest of the story here:

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Dr. Diana Francis, Senior Scientist and Head of Environmental and Geophysical Sciences (ENGEOS) Lab at Khalifa University, participated in the Antarctica Day event on 1 December 2021 at the Dubai Expo. The event, which was hosted by Environment Agency — Abu Dhabi (EAD), brought together the 35 people from the UAE who have visited the world’s polar regions of Antarctica and the Arctic.��

The purpose of the gathering was to share stories on historic UAE Antarctic and Arctic expeditions from the previous 50 years, discuss the importance of the polar regions to the UAE with respect to climate change and plan future environmental collaborations, in celebration of the UAE’s 50th anniversary.

“I have been studying polar regions and particularly Antarctica for more than five years,” Dr. Francis shared.��

“My interest is specifically in the climate science of Polar Regions with emphasis on the link between the atmosphere and the cryosphere (both land ice and sea ice). In this context, I organize every year, along with two other polar scientists, a workshop on Polar Meteorology and Climatology at the European Geosciences Union General Assembly to facilitate the exchange of new knowledge among the international community of polar scientists, which helps us to identify current gaps and plan future activities,” she added.

Currently, at the ENGEOS Lab, KU researchers are conducting a project on Antarctic sea ice and how global warming is affecting it. KU has instruments in Antarctica to measure the state of ice and gain invaluable knowledge about its variability. The work is being done in collaboration with Australia.

Future plans include additional projects to study the variability of Antarctic Ice and its impact on Sea level rise globally and regionally, as well as the development of new methods to investigate the Antarctic environment from space (via satellites) and on the ground (via in-situ observations).

The Antarctic Day event was organized under the Zayed’s Lights initiative. During the gathering, each participant received a Zayed light, which is a small solar powered light, in recognition of their contribution to Antarctic science and polar science in general.

Over 100 Zayed Lights were used in 2018 by a team of UAE researchers from EAD who traveled to Antarctica to light up the Antarctic sky, sending a message of unity, hope and action on climate change.

To symbolically raise awareness on the importance of climate change action, in replicating the initiative of EAD’s Team Zayed in Antarctica, the attendees at the Expo 2020 Dubai event wrote the following words: ‘Antarctica, Climate Change, Dubai Expo, UAE 50 Years and COP 28’, using 50 individual solar lights, reflecting 50 years of the UAE.

The participants, who are now part of the UAE Polar Network, also discussed the key messages from the August 2021 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Report, which warned about the impact of climate change and the urgency to take action to mitigate the worst impacts of climate change in the future.��

Erica Solomon
Senior Publication Specialist
26 December 2021

The post Celebrating UAE’s Golden Jubilee with Solar Lights and Reflections on Antarctica appeared first on Khalifa University.

Middle Eastern governments must do more to tackle air pollution, experts say, with fuel subsidies and poor public transport the cause of poor air quality in many major cities.

Air pollution is a major health hazard across the globe, with the World Health Organisation stating that in 2019, 99 per cent of the world’s population lived in places where the institution’s air quality guidelines were not met.

Vehicles and dust major sources of pollution

As is the case elsewhere in the Gulf, road vehicles remain a significant source of pollution in the UAE, with more than three million vehicles using the country’s roads despite heavy investments in public transport, such as the Dubai Metro.

Aside from vehicle emissions, other major sources of PM2.5 in the Middle East include power plants, various industrial facilities and sand storms, the last of which may be affected by climate change, although current evidence is unclear.

Dr Diana Francis, a senior research scientist and head of the Environmental and Geophysical Sciences laboratory at Khalifa University in Abu Dhabi, says that from between about 2000 and 2010, dust emissions increased, but then fell back the following decade.

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Atmospheric rivers are long stretches of cloud that can carry enormous quantities of water vapour from the tropics towards the poles. They were first described in 1994��and since then have come to be understood as the major mechanism transporting moisture from lower latitude oceans to higher latitude land masses, where they dump that moisture as snow and rain.

With her longstanding interest in how dust is moved around by atmospheric phenomena, atmospheric scientist, Diana Francis, at Khalifa University in Abu Dhabi, wanted to investigate these dusty rivers, their cause and effects.

Francis and her team determined��that, while these atmospheric rivers normally flowed from the tropical Atlantic over the Alps, in early 2021 they had instead been pushed south by high pressure in the north Atlantic so that they passed over North Africa and the Mediterranean Sea, collecting not only dust but also warmth and moisture.

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A Khalifa University team has found warming global temperatures may be making springtime rainfall last longer in the UAE, and possibly become more common.��

A team from the Khalifa University Environmental and Geophysical Sciences Lab (ENGEOS) investigated spring season rain in the UAE, finding a positive trend over the past 20 years. Meaning, more rain is occurring during the spring now than in previous decades.

To better predict and model these rainy days, the team characterized the atmospheric conditions that favor their occurrence and explained that springtime rain will be more likely in the future as the global climate continues to warm and the global water cycle accelerates.

Additionally, globally averaged rainfall has increased since 1950, with human influence likely contributing to this.

A warmer atmosphere can hold more water, noted Dr. Francis, the senior author on the study, meaning rainfall can last longer. While this can be beneficial to a region known for its lack of rain, it can also be detrimental, since much of the city infrastructure is not designed to handle large amounts of rainfall.

Dr. Narendra Nelli, Postdoctoral Fellow, Dr. Diana Francis, Senior Research Scientist and Head of the ENGEOS Lab, Dr. Ricardo Fonseca, Postdoctoral Fellow, Dr. Rachid Abida, Research Scientist, Michael Weston, Research Engineer, Dr. Youssef Wehbe, Graduate Research and Teaching Assistant, and Taha Al Hosary from the UAE National Center of Meteorology, analyzed 95 springtime rain events that affected the UAE between 2000 and 2020. They published their findings in.

These systems are known as mesoscale convective systems (MCS). An MCS is a cluster of storms that moves as a single system. For one to develop in a hyper arid environment like the UAE, a combination of factors ranging from local to regional scale is needed, including a steep temperature gradient on the ground between the land and the surrounding seas. If cold air from the sea meets hot air from the desert, there is potential for an MCS to form.

“In arid regions, MCSs account for most of the annual rainfall and are associated with heavy rain that can cause flooding, landslides, and associated disruption to daily life,” Dr. Nelli said. “Past extreme weather events over the Arabian Peninsula have had devastating impacts on the local population so understanding how they start and develop is crucial for better simulation and prediction of future events and impact.”

despite their large contribution to the total amount of rain per year. What’s more, Dr. Nelli said, they may occur more frequently under a warmer climate.

The study found that MCSs occurring in spring over the UAE are large-scale features of the global water cycle which drifts over the UAE, contrary to summertime MCSs which develops locally over the UAE.

The study highlighted that the duration of these springtime MCS is becoming longer and the resulting amount of rain larger.

A better understanding of what causes MCSs in a region known for its aridity is an important step toward accurately predicting them and benefit from their associated rainfall, especially as they are expected to become more frequent as the global climate changes, Dr. Nelli said.��

Jade Sterling
Science Writer
28 September 2021

The post More UAE Rain in the Springtime as Climate Change Impacts Local Weather Patterns appeared first on Khalifa University.

On the occasion of the 2021 International Day of Clean Air for Blue Skies, Dr. Diana Francis was invited to speak at a webinar titled ‘Air Quality Beyond Borders: Exchanging Best Practices in Air Quality Management.’

By Dr. Diana Francis

I was delighted to take part in this event to echo the voice of academia and the scientific community on the question of air quality and its link to climate change, but also to highlight the efforts and new insights we have for society.

Academia and scientific research play an important role in advancing our understanding of air quality and climate change. It also helps policy makers establish science-based strategies and gives them a way to assess the efficiency of those guidelines and strategies.

Since the beginning, Khalifa University has been very involved in research and development on the UAE environment in general, but especially in air quality R&D.��

Masdar Institute was established to develop science-based knowledge on air pollution and to provide guidance and recommendations to governmental entities on the best ways to improve the air quality in the UAE. This has been achieved by investing in both observational and modelling activities which involves faculties, research staff and students.��

Externally, Khalifa University has partnered with the key players in this domain in the UAE with projects and ongoing collaborations with several entities such as the Ministry of Climate Change and the Environment (MOCCAE) and the Environment Agency Abu Dhabi (EAD), with whom we have the privilege to work hand-in-hand to improve the air quality in the UAE.

For instance, the Environmental and Geosciences Lab (ENGEOS) at Khalifa University, which I head, is responsible for providing air quality forecasts for the entire UAE daily to the MOCCAE in order to be shared with the public and serve as guidance for vulnerable groups. ENGEOS is also working very closely with the EAD to assess the impact of air pollution on the country’s weather patterns – an indirect impact of air pollution but rarely accounted for in strategic plans.

We have found many key insights on air quality through our work at ENGEOS. For example, we found that air quality is season dependent, with poorer air quality observed during the summer. We also found that the main contributor to the particulate matter levels observed in the UAE is natural aerosols – dust! This makes sense in a desert nation, but there’s also polluted dust from when natural dust mixes with pollutants as it travels over a polluted area to account for. This plays into air quality across the UAE depending on the level of emissions in the countries around the Arabian Gulf. Given the wind patterns here, polluted dust can be transported to the UAE by the Shamal winds. It’s clear that pollution and climate have a very complex relationship and that achieving clean air requires advanced techniques to untangle this interaction.

We know that increasing temperatures can lead to increased concentration of pollutants in the atmosphere because of the chemistry involved, but as temperatures rise, our consumption of electricity goes with it.��

Higher electricity consumption means more emissions, which means more pollution. Then, the increased level of pollutants in the atmosphere impacts the climate by warming the atmosphere as the particulate matter, especially black carbon, absorbs the sunlight.����

Scientific findings and knowledge are actually the backbone of any directive and viable policy. Khalifa University is committed to communicating the scientific findings in the domain of air quality in order to provide science-based knowledge to policy makers and help them elaborate the most appropriate strategies to improve the quality of the air we breathe. As a concrete example, knowing that some of the pollutants are being carried to the UAE from outside the country helps us to better design the relevant strategies to cut local emissions. The composition of the pollutants in the UAE, natural versus man-made ones, their spatio-temporal variability, and other factors are all key information when it comes to establishing sound policies and applying them.

There is no doubt that regional collaboration on air quality among the Gulf countries is crucial. Air knows no borders and whatever is emitted somewhere at a given time it will end up in the atmosphere somewhere else eventually. A positive action toward cutting emissions at one place can be easily cancelled by no action in the neighboring country. This is a crucial aspect to improving air quality, requiring long term coordination and engagement from all parties.

Dr. Diana Francis is a Senior Research Scientist and Head of the ENGEOS Lab at Khalifa University.��

The post We Need to Look Beyond Our Borders for Clean Air and Blue Skies appeared first on Khalifa University.

Weather pattern could lead to more flooding but also benefit home-grown food production, scientists say.��

Spells of heavy rain that can cause flash flooding in the UAE have become longer lasting over the past two decades, a study has found.

Khalifa University of Science and Technology in Abu Dhabi and the National Centre of Meteorology (NCM), also in the UAE capital, found these events in the southeastern Arabian peninsula “may be even more impactful in a warming world”.

However, while they create the risk of floods, such episodes also offer opportunities in a country where precipitation is limited.

In a study recently published in the journal��Atmospheric Research, scientists looked at mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), a weather pattern that most commonly causes severe weather in March or April.

They analyzed 95 of these between 2000 and 2020, and found they were caused by particular wind patterns and moisture coming from the Arabian Sea, Arabian Gulf or Red Sea.

They looked at observational data and records from satellites, for example, and found that, over time, these events over the UAE were lasting longer.

Some of the most severe episodes happened in 2016 when there was severe flooding after more than 240mm of rain fell in Dubai, and Abu Dhabi experienced winds of nearly 80mph.

Climate change key to changing weather patterns

Dr.�� Diana Francis believes climate change is key to the increased frequency of heavy rain in the Emirates

“We believe that global warming and climate change are likely responsible for the increase in the duration of MCSs over the study region,” said Dr Diana Francis, an author of the study.

Dr. Francis, who heads the environmental and geophysical sciences laboratory at Khalifa University, said a warmer atmosphere could hold more water vapor, meaning extreme events last longer.

Read the rest of the article here:

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Researchers from KU aim to characterize the weather features over the Arabian Peninsula and establish knowledge on their seasonal and annual variability.

Khalifa University researchers are gaining a deeper scientific understanding of the processes that affect the climate in the Arabian Peninsula. And with this new insight, they will be better equipped to simulate and project future changes in the region’s climate.

Dr. Ricardo Fonseca, Postdoctoral Fellow, Dr. Diana Francis, Senior Research Scientist and Head of the KU Environmental and Geophysical Sciences (ENGEOS) Laboratory, and Dr. Narendra Nelli, Postdoctoral Fellow, with Dr. Mohan Thota from the Indian National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, investigated two of the weather systems that are responsible for determining the climate of the Arabian Region: The Arabian Heat Low (AHL) and the Intertropical Discontinuity (ITD). The researchers published their findings in the.

The AHL is an area of warm air close to the ground that develops inland as a result of strong surface heating by the sun, while the ITD is the boundary between the hot and dry winds from the desert and the cooler, moist winds from the Arabian Sea. Together, these systems play an important role in triggering summertime�� moist convection in one of the driest places on Earth.

“Thermal heat lows and convergence zones between moist and dry air masses are ubiquitous features of tropical and subtropical regions,” explained Dr. Francis. “They impact the meteorological features in these regions, and cause the regions’ dust storms, convection, and rainfall.”

“Like other desert regions, the Arabian Peninsula sees a thermal heat low develop during the summer season, and with this, the movement of the intertropical front from the Arabian Sea to the inland areas.”����

The ITD is a well-known convergence line, marking the leading edge of the monsoon flow. It separates the moist monsoon layer to the south from the dry boundary layer to the north. The convergence along this front plays a key role in favoring the development of moist air over the UAE during summer.

“Several studies have been conducted over Africa on the variability and dynamic role of the ITD,” said Dr. Francis. “But despite being key elements of the regional climate and weather patterns, the characteristics of the AHL and the ITD over the Arabian Peninsula have not been established yet. This is what we aimed to do: investigate the variability of the AHL and ITD over different periods of time.”

With more data on how these weather systems interact in the region, scientists will be able to develop more accurate climate models, enabling them to better predict future changes in the region’s climate systems, which is critical information in light of a rapidly changing climate due to human-induced climate change.

The AHL is a deep thermal low that develops in response to strong surface heating, mostly occurring as a summertime feature. The researchers found, however, that the AHL coincides directly with the active and break periods of the Indian Summer Monsoon: increased levels of rain over the Arabian Sea and the Indian subcontinent cause greater warming over the Arabian Peninsula.

Like the heat lows studied over the Sahara Desert, the Arabian Heat Low presents a cycle as it moves across the desert. The AHL moves northwest towards the core of the Arabian desert over the course of five to 15 days, where it intensifies, before moving southeast and weakening near the Arabian Sea.

“We also noticed that the build up and subsequent decline over the summer months is rapid and sudden at both ends of the season,” said Dr. Francis. “Besides the annual march of the sun, this may arise from the fact that the majority of the rainfall in the region occurs in winter and early spring. Once the soil and the atmosphere are bone dry, the heat low can develop very quickly, and collapse just as quickly once the rains return.”

Linked to the seasonal variability of the AHL is the ITD, as the stronger the heat low becomes, the further the ITD is pushed northwards.

The ITD is located along the Arabian Peninsula coastline during the winter, but migrates northwards as the summer months approach. In the warm season, its position can fluctuate by as much as 10 degrees, reaching the Arabian Gulf and southern Iranian coastline at night. These daily fluctuations are roughly five to ten times larger than those seen over Africa, with the researchers determining that this is due to the location of the AHL, which is closer to the nearby seas than its equivalent over Africa.

The researchers also noticed the link between the daily cycle of the ITD and the daytime expansion of the AHL. As the AHL intensified, increased moisture would move inland and the ITD would move northwards. As the cooler moist air moves with the ITD, the heat low weakens, and the ITD shifts southwards again.

The researchers also considered the variability of the AHL over a period of 41 years. They found that the AHL exhibits a clear positive trend linked to the increase in surface and air temperatures in the region over the last few decades associated with global warming. Interestingly, they found that while the surface temperatures have been increasing throughout the region, the increase in temperature is more pronounced in the heat low region, and roughly 35 percent lower in the areas outside the AHL region.

“Both features play a crucial role in weather conditions in the Arabian Peninsula by modulating the atmospheric circulation at different altitudes,” explained Dr. Francis.

“The ITD helps in triggering dust storms and rainfall as convergence between the systems promote cloud development while also increasing turbulence near the ground, which helps lift dust into the air. Investigating how processes such as dust storms are modulated by the AHL and ITD is an area we’d like to research in the future.”

Jade Sterling
Science Writer
24 August 2021

The post Khalifa University Research Shows Increasing Trends in Summertime Temperatures over the UAE appeared first on Khalifa University.

Climate change and its impact have been a growing concern worldwide. To continue and further enhance the UAE’s efforts in addressing the issue of climate change, the Ministry of Climate Change and the Environment (MOCCAE) has established the UAE Climate Change Research Network (CCRN). The Network brings together a group of committed climate change scientists and researchers from universities, the government, and other research entities to promote collaborations among scientists in the region working on the different challenges imposed by climate change.��

The Network is organized into 4 clusters spanning different topics of concern with the members identified based on their expertise. Khalifa University’s very own Dr. Diana Francis, Senior Research Scientist and Head of the ENGEOS Lab, has been appointed Lead of the Climate Data and Modeling Cluster in which there are more than 30 scientists spread over the different universities and institutions in the UAE. This cluster focuses on the local and regional climatic conditions, trends, and projections. These include temperature, precipitation, sea level, and extreme weather events such as heatwaves, flooding, storms, etc.��

“My role will be to foster the collaborations on these topics among all scientists in the UAE to come up with new ideas, new collaborative work and science-based solutions to the challenges related to climate change, all under the umbrella of the ministry and the CCRN,” Dr. Diana explained.��

As cluster lead, Dr. Diana will be responsible for coordinating agenda-setting, project design, and research activities within the cluster, as well as organizing cluster discussions, engaging other cluster members, and ensuring the delivery projects.

Dr. Diana heads the ENGEOS Lab at Khalifa University where research activities focus on studying natural processes and addressing environmental challenges at local and regional scales to propose sustainable solutions and support science-based strategies for stakeholders and governmental entities.��

“At ENGEOS lab, we work on several projects that are of particular relevance to the Climate and Modeling Cluster of the UAE CCRN. For instance, we work on the regional climate of the Arabian Peninsula and the UAE to characterize its main patterns and detect trends and variabilities. We also work on the link between the different components of the regional climate system, especially the link between the atmospheric circulation and air quality, meteorological phenomena (such as fog, dust storms, etc.). In addition to working on the climate of our region, we investigate the climate of Polar Regions such as Antarctica and the Arctic, where the footprint of climate change is clearly visible and changes there can impact our region via changes in the global atmospheric and oceanic circulation and changes in sea level due to ice melt. At ENGEOS, we perform these research activities by combining observational data and modeling techniques including machine learning and artificial intelligence,” Dr. Diana said.��

“I’m extremely proud and honored by this appointment, at the same time I’m well aware of the big responsibility that comes with it and will spare no effort to serve this community and this role as best as I can. I take this opportunity to extend my deepest respect and appreciation to all the CCRN members, the CCRN support team at the Ministry, and all my colleagues, partners and collaborators for their trust, confidence, and generous encouragement. I greatly look forward to support and work with the KU community toward a successful contribution from all of us at KU into this national effort.”

Ara Maj Cruz
Creative Writer
17 August 2021

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