New global measurements reveal critical underestimates in pollution models, with major implications for climate and health policies
The hidden truth about global soot emissions – tune in now!听
Black carbon, commonly known as soot, is one of the most harmful air pollutants and a significant driver of climate change. An international team of researchers including Khalifa University鈥檚 Dr. Diana Francis and Dr. Narendra Nelli has now found black carbon emissions have been vastly underestimated in many parts of the world. In a study published in , the team found that current global emission inventories fail to capture the true extent of black carbon emissions in much of the Global South, where real-world measurements often exceed model predictions by two- to fourfold.听
Using data from the Surface Particulate Matter Network (SPARTAN), the researchers compared direct measurements of black carbon in 22 cities across six continents with simulations from a high-resolution atmospheric model. While model estimates closely matched observations in North America, Europe and Australia, they significantly underrepresented emissions in cities such as Dhaka, Addis Ababa, Ilorin (Nigeria), and Mexico City.听
The researchers concluded that the problem lies in the assumptions built into global emission models. They rely heavily on data from high-income countries and often overlook local factors like widespread use of biomass for cooking and heating, poor regulation of industrial sources, and informal waste burning. In Dhaka, Bangladesh, for example, emissions from inefficient brick kilns and open waste burning are likely much higher than current models account for.听
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鈥淏lack carbon emissions are systematically undercounted in the Global South, where diffuse and inefficient combustion sources dominate. This misrepresentation has serious implications for both climate modelling and public health policy.鈥�
鈥� Professor Diana Francis, Khalifa University.
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This misrepresentation has broad implications. Black carbon is formed by incomplete combustion of wood, waste and fossil fuels and exacerbates warming of the air and surfaces in regions where it is concentrated. It only lasts a short time in the atmosphere but has significant direct and indirect impacts on the climate, agriculture, and human health. Underestimating its prevalence could delay or misdirect efforts to reduce emissions and protect public health.听
Although some improvements have been made to emission inventories in recent years, such as incorporating newer data from Africa and adjusting for improved cookstove adoption, they still fall short of reflecting the real conditions on the ground.听
The research team calls for urgent efforts to enhance emission inventories with more regionally specific data and to expand air quality monitoring in underrepresented areas. Without these changes, the health and climate costs of black carbon in the Global South will continue to be underestimated.听
Jade Sterling
Science Writer
